You know, opinions on what’s coming in 2010 are a dime a dozen, and, frankly, worth exactly that. My personal favorite is a list of all the lists of predictions that our friends at 1001 Noisy Cameras put together, here.
 

Anyone who’s not been living in a cave can take a shot at what’s going to happen in 2010. The most telling piece is the Consumer Electronics Show, the big deal that has now grown to include various digital imaging manufacturers and products. Here’s our overview of what to expect, nothing all too earth shattering. It’s not the least bit surprising that the big noise is being made by the Electronics-to-Photography manufacturers like Sony, Panasonic and Samsung.
 

The broad strokes, memory will get bigger and cheaper. (“PANASONIC INTRODUCES NEW 64 GB* AND 48 GB* SDXC MEMORY CARDS”)

Camera companies will offer more models between the lines… adding to the confusion. Here’s the Panasonic site with all the press releases:

…and our own story on the Sony a450. 
 

Computers will get faster, and cheaper. Apple Netbook rumors will continue to persist. iPhones and iPhone-like products will broaden capabilities and expand market share. We should see reports of new Canon Rebel-like additions and a Nikon D800. (Even the D900 is rumored.)
 

I’m not interested in idle gossip, or obvious trends. I’m interested in what’s going to change the game, and I think it’s what is now being called HDSLR, or, HD video capture with a DSLR camera. 
 

Here’s the thing. Many photographers, pro and amateur alike, have dabbled with video cameras and have played with the video on their phones and point-and-shoots, maybe even doing some editing in iMovie and posting to YouTube and Facebook. Yet, having HD video on a camera like a Canon 5DM2 still, I suspect, for many of us feels like kind of an added extra, something that is fun, but not essential to the camera. I suspect it’s going to change everything, and here’s why. 
 

First, and most importantly, a still photographer has a different sensibility than a videographer or a filmmaker; a different way of seeing, if you’ll indulge me. Once you get past the idea that you’re goofing around with this thing, and start thinking seriously about shooting with the camera, we’re seeing amazing, and amazingly unique work. Here’s a piece via Lightstalkers’ Poul Madsen  incorporating the stills and video from the Canon 5DM2 (video here). 
 

In an economic climate that is incredibly challenging for all photographers, and in particular for photojournalists, this is arguably a completely new “product”- a film shot by a still photographer. 
 

Second, the equipment gives you a “35mm look”, with lenses that most photographers know and love. And already own. To make a long story short, you’re shooting to a full 35mm frame, as opposed to a small three-chip array in a video camera. Shooting a portrait with, say, my favorite portrait lens (the Nikkor 105 f2.8) I’m going to get a perspective and depth of field effect that I want, and is difficult, or impossible, to achieve with a smaller format. 
 

Again. It’s a 35mm photographer’s vision, not the vision of a filmmaker or videographer. And by the way, with a Canon 5DM2 you can shoot full-res stills during a video recording without missing a beat. That is way, way too much for me to try to juggle, but photographers who master that skill will truly break new ground and create a new medium.
 

The equipment. 
 

Here’s a really interesting video, that, by the way, appeared not only on Vimeo but on the big screen, and by all reports holds up there as well. It’s a short film spliced with footage from the Red One, Canon 5D Mk II, and Panasonic Lumix GH1, and interestingly shot with premium lenses, some even primes. (The lesson here? Not that the media delivery is the lowest common denominator- it isn’t, based on the “big screen” viewing of this video. No, the lesson is that the sensors in even a sub-$1000 camera can handle whatever the best lenses can throw at them.) Need a $10,000 video camera to make good footage? Not so much. 
 

Production and distribution. 

I can take a quick video with my phone and email it or upload it within seconds.    See my Head-2-Head on the iPhone vs. the 5DM2- it started as kind of a tongue-in-cheek humor piece, but the conclusions are undeniable- there’s a place for a phone on a battlefield- whether that battlefield is on the front lines in Afghanistan or Hollywood Boulevard.
 

I can make serviceable video edits with tools as simple as iMovie, even iPhoto, literally in minutes. This Shoot Diary entry on the Propseri Studios production is a case in point.  I can, in fact, make edits in-camera, in most cases. iMovie, in particular, has the typical Apple integration within the program allowing me to publish directly to YouTube accounts through the “Share” feature. 
 

Other more sophisticated editing tools like Final Cut Studio, Final Cut Express and others are clearly true editing tools, but demand much more time and skill to learn and use. There is a good reason that “Editor” is a specialty within the filmmaking production team. 
 

In a landscape where photographers are struggling to figure out where they fit in, I see the emergence of this new media form, (and that is truly what it is), as a fresh new opportunity for a still photographer to create a product unique to what it is we do, how we see, and how we work. We are uniquely positioned to combine everything we have- equipment, still photography, a fresh way of shooting video, the sense of lighting and composition that has always been the strength of good photography- and make something new.  
 

From a commercial standpoint, the limitations of media delivery, that is, basing the work on on-line content quality, is more of a liberation than a limitation. If I have clients who need work solely for their YouTube and Vimeo channels or websites, I can shoot and produce without the usual production overhead that any good video demands. It ranges from my fast and dirty slideshows to DVD quality wedding photographers to the work I’ve linked above. 
 

What we need to learn.
 

First, the lingo. Compression, formats, all that, and they have a nice primer on that. There’s a great “Video Primer for Photographers” on Luminous Landscape.
 

Probably the most important thing that is completely new for still photographers would be sound. Editing tools aside, sound is a uniquely powerful component of a film or video- it’s very common advice that you can show a bad picture and make up for it with a great soundtrack. The reverse, bad sound make the entire production look bad, is also true. Photographers need to understand and be able to produce the sound component, and, by the way, that means bypassing the DSLR sound recording entirely, the quality is just not there, even with external microphones. A basic digital voice recorder moves the production values to a new level.Sound mixing and editing, by the way, is something that I’d suggest you learn from a professional, either by taking a class, or looking over some shoulders. From my very limited experience working with editor Chi Ho Lee,  I learned enough to understand I know, essentially, nothing. The things going on in a good sound edit are far beyond anything you can imagine without seeing it done. 
 

Continuous lighting, rather than strobe, is, obviously, essential. This means available light, tungsten, LED lighting, HID and all the rest of the stuff that the film industry takes for granted. Lighting with continuous lighting is a bit of a different animal, but fairly easy to adapt to if you understand the principles of lighting. 
 

What we’re going to be fighting.
 

The film and video industry. The middle-tier film industry, that is, not your wedding video guys and not Hollywood, but the studios and freelancers who are doing much of the Corporate, Broadcast and Journalism video right now have their turf and they’re not going to give it up easily. I’ve had long discussions with many well-established friends in the industry, and their contempt for this new work, this media, and even the tools to produce it is palpable. Of course. This is not a surprise. But it will be an online dispute that will make the film-vs-digital debate look like a love-fest. The bottom line, though, as with that debate too, is that you either lead or get left behind. 
 

What we’re not going to be fighting. 
 

Clients. Although clients always want more for less, this is a chance to give them some really valuable content for very little investment. The cost of a photographer-produced video is a fraction of a full-on video production, and, if it brings a unique product to the table then all the better. The challenge, as it has always been, is to be able to demonstrate the quality, value and originality of the work.
 

That’s it. That’s my prediction for the coming decade. Still photography has not been the darling of the commercial market since "Video Killed the Radio Star" by The Buggles aired in 1981 on MTV. Multimedia, Interactive, Web development have all sapped the budgets and resources of every client out there, whether commercial or editorial, and for a long time now we’ve seen the market for good still photography dwindle away or get tapped by crowdsourcing.
 

For the first time in a long, long time I can see something new, something exciting and refreshing, and something that a photographer can do better than anyone else.
 

We’ve got the tools, let’s rock the world. It’s going to be a great ride!